Ukraine: summer vibes affect the number of parties to enter the parliament, Gritsenko and Rabinovich to gain the most from hesitating voters

According to summer survey taken in late June-early July, 2018, should the parliamentary elections in Ukraine be held ‘this Sunday’, the new Ukrainian parliament would consist of five political parties. The biggest support of Ukrainian voters would be given to the Batkivschyna Party headed by Yulia Tymoshenko (11.4%) followed by “Gromadyanska Pozitsiya” of Anatoliy Gritsenko (8.1%), ”Za Zhittya” Party headed by Vadim Rabinovich (7.6%), the Solidarnist Party of the incumbent Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko (7.2%), and Opposition Bloc (6.9%).

Contrary to previous results obtained in spring, no MPs would represent the Radical Party headed by Oleg Lyashko (4.1%) as well as “Samopomich” (3.6%) and “Sluga Narodu” parties. We believe that, among other things, these changes may stem from the qualitative differences in the representational sample due to summer vacations.

31% of respondents have already decided to vote during the presidential elections, although they were not ready to name the candidate they would support. While asked to define their choice more accurately, the bigger part of hesitating voters stated that they are likely to give their votes to Anatoliy Gritsenko (32%) or Vadim Rabinovich (29%). The other candidates are likely to enjoy considerably modest support: Yulia Tymoshenko (12%), Andriy Sadoviy (10.0%), Oleg Lyashko (8%), Petro Poroshenko (5%), another candidate – 4%. The poll embraced the politicians that would most likely participate in the elections.

The so-called anti-rating question “What is the political party that you would never vote for?” revealed that 74% of respondents would never vote for Opposition Bloc (Yuriy Boyko), and 70% of respondents would not support the Solidarnist Party (Petro Poroshenko). Other political parties and their leaders featured almost the same negative tendency. The anti-rating of “Batkivschina” headed by Yulia Tymoshenko totaled 69%, and was followed by the Radical Party headed by Oleg Lyashko (58%), and “Samopomich” of Andriy Sadoviy (52%). Non-parliamentary parties headed by well-known politicians also lack a broad public support. 52% of respondents would never vote for the union of right-wing parties headed by Oleg Tyagnybok, 44% of respondents would never back ”Za Zhittya” Party headed by Vadim Rabinovich while 39% would in no way vote for “Gromadyanska Pozitsiya” of Anatoliy Gritsenko.

The international research center BURI (The Belgium-Ukraine Research Institute) conducted the survey in Ukraine from June 25 to July 6, 2018. Total quantity of respondents equaled 2022 individuals (representational sample). The survey method – direct interviews. Error margin is 2.2%.

The author: Michel THEYS

Michel Theys, a Belgian native, began his career as a civil servant, serving the public for several decades. After retirement, he shifted gears to follow his passion for journalism. With a background in public administration, Theys brought a unique perspective to his reporting. His insightful articles, covering a wide array of topics, swiftly gained recognition. Today, Michel Theys is a respected journalist known for his balanced and thoughtful reporting in the Belgian media landscape.

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