The Brussels Eurocrats were holding their breath before the decision on Brexit that the British should take on Thursday. The result will have historic importance to the “European project”. Often said that the EU will emerge from the crisis strengthened. But this conclusion can hardly be done if the British, the citizens of the participating country decides to withdraw from the EU.
Many believe that the EU in the case of Britain will undergo the most severe test, over 60 years of existence of the Union.
“We have nothing left to do but pray,” says one of the former Prime Ministers of the EU, whose office is located in Brussels, in an interview with the online publication Politico. The former Prime Minister did not want to be named.
The threat to Western civilization
President of the European Council pole Donald Tusk, went the furthest in the description “disaster”. In an interview with German newspaper Bild Tusk said that Breaksit will be the end of not only the EU but also the entire Western political civilization.
According to the comments of leading politicians of the EU, the UK will be severely punished, if they decide to exit.
“The Union is in the Union. Outside it is outside it”, — says the powerful German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble (Wolfgang Schäuble).
The British will suffer for your choice, if that choice is “Leave”. The answer will be tough, not least in order to show other countries what awaits them in the case. Therefore, the British promise for seven long years of uncertainty and negotiations on their future relations with the EU and access to the important domestic market.
The British have to pay dearly…
If the UK is to use article 50 of the Treaty governing the very membership in the Union, this will be followed by two stages of negotiations.
During the first two years will need to work out the terms of the divorce, which must be approved by the remaining 27 members of the EU. Only then the EU can start negotiation of a trade agreement with great Britain, which is not a member of the EU, and this process can drag on for years.
There is no question of giving the UK the opportunity to remain on the EU internal market.
“The next day after that there will be no desire to be “nice” with the British,” says Camille Grand Camille Grand) organization of the French Foundation for Strategic Research. The British have to pay expensive, not least in order to deter others from the same step,” she says.
The same level of importance as the fall of the Berlin wall
However, Pexit strongly inspire eurosceptics in other member States. The leader of the French far-right party “national front” will be among those whom the decision of the UK will please.
Marine Le Pen (Marine Le Pen) have compared a possible British exit from the EU with the fall of the Berlin wall. And she promises to work to achieve the same plebiscite in France.
There is no doubt that Brakcet to the ground will shake the EU.
“Breaksit can cause a Domino effect, in which the EU will fall apart,” says mark Leonard (Mark Leonard, Director European Council on foreign relations.
“The EU will look like a ruined project, a great power in ruins,” says Leonard.
The lack of support of the people
Others believe that Breaksit can breathe new life into the process overall security policy, which prevented the British.
“In addition, cities such as Paris, Frankfurt and Luxembourg can establish themselves as financial centers, after London will lose its role as the financial capital of Europe,” — said the former Minister of foreign Affairs of Poland Radoslaw Sikorski (Radoslaw Sikorski) the correspondent of the New York Times.
Many analysts point to the fact that that Union has no popular support in many member countries, the EU can blame himself. The EU has only recently recovered from the economic crisis that began in 2007-2008 and unemployment remains at 10%.
Euro and refugees…
The introduction of a common currency, the Euro, was partially unsuccessful because of economic conditions in the countries of Northern and southern Europe are very different. As a result, these poor countries, like Greece, mired in bottomless debt and was saved only at the last moment.
Recently, the EU has undergone new tests associated with the migration crisis, which has become a breeding ground for right-wing populist parties, particularly in Austria and Hungary.
Breaksit the UK will cause damage, especially in the economic sphere, but the loss of one of the most important country will deal a lot of damage and most of the EU.
The feeling of helplessness
In the capital of the EU there is a sense of helplessness, writes the online edition of Politico, carefully tracking events in the internal life of the EU institutions. The Eurocrats feel they are not able to influence the situation, and that they can only wait for the results.
“No one among those who care about the future of the EU, would not sleep in the night of Friday,” says member of the European Parliament David MacAlister (David McAlister).