Refueling with gasoline for less than 2 euros per liter is again possible in numerous places. And the price will continue to fall for a while. But the reduction in excise duty remains necessary.
The price of crude oil has been falling steadily for more than 2.5 weeks, according to fuel expert Paul van Selms of United Consumers, the decline in the price of gasoline will continue for a while. “Maybe even 5 cents. But it’s uncertain. For example, if China blocks Taiwan, to name just one example, the price will skyrocket again.”
The recommended price for a liter of gasoline is now 2.17 euros, but refueling for 1.90 euros is no longer an exception, especially with unmanned pumps in the Netherlands.
With the latest price reductions, the price of gasoline is back to the level before the Russian raid. A full tank could have been even less expensive if the euro had not lost so much value against the dollar. Crude oil is paid for in US dollars and that currency has risen in value by more than 10 percent in six months.
On Monday morning, the price of crude oil fell again by more than 1 percent, when it became known that US president Joe Biden had spoken with France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Sunday about a new nuclear deal with Iran. If the agreement is implemented, more Iranian oil may come onto the market.
Also, traders expect that there will be less demand for oil in the near future as the economy cools. Economic growth is also under pressure due to the high inflation that many countries are facing; a recession seems inevitable. And if the economy grows less hard, there is less demand for energy, which lowers the price.
Gasoline is therefore again as expensive as before the war, but that price includes the temporary excise tax reduction of 17 cents. Including VAT, the reduction, which came into force on april 1, is even 20 cents. The reduction would expire on december 31, a liter of gasoline would then become 20 cents more expensive in one fell swoop. Van Selms: “that seems politically unsaleable to me, so I expect that the lower excise tax will remain for a while.”
According to the ANWB, it is pure necessity that the excise tax reduction becomes a permanent thing in order to prevent large groups of people from being restricted in their mobility because they can no longer afford the car. The most recent ANWB poll held in July shows that 59 percent are adjusting their car use due to the expensive gasoline.
If prices remain as they are now, 22 percent of Dutch people plan to go to work less often by car and half say they take the car less often for social and recreational purposes. A third of people say they have no alternative to the car to go to work. “This group is particularly hard hit by the high petrol prices,” says the ANWB.
In the Netherlands, more than 83 cents per liter of gasoline are normally levied on excise duty. The Netherlands is a leader in Europe. The reduction in excise duty does not change that.