The survey conducted on May 13-17th showed that the new Ukrainian parliament would consist of the following political parties: “Sluga Narodu” Party led by the newly elected President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy (34.7%), “Opposition Platform – Za Zhittya” led by Yuriy Boyko, Vadim Rabinovich, and Viktor Medvedchuk (15.1%), the Batkivschyna Party of Yulia Tymoshenko (9.5%), and the Solidarnist Party of the former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko (8.9%).
The other parties so far do not have enough public support to enter the next parliament: the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko – 4.9%, “Gromadyanska Pozitsiya” of Anatoliy Grytsenko and Dmytro Dobrodomov – 4.6%, “Syla I Chest” of Ihor Smeshko – 3.9%, “Svoboda” of Oleg Tyagnybok – 2.3%, “Opposition Bloc – The Party of Peace and Development” (Eugeniy Muraev, Oleksandr Vilkul, Vadim Novinskiy) – 2.0%, etc.
Also, for the first time the survey included a number of newly established political parties including “Golos” of the well-known Ukrainian musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, Gromadyanska Platforma of Nadia Savchenko, and “Ukrainian Success Strategy” of Ukraine’s prime-minister Volodymyr Groisman.
The results of the survey are shown in the tables below.
As regards major trends of the new political season in Ukraine, major heed should be given to the following aspects:
The next parliament can be comprised of four political parties. Three leading parties (“Sluga Narodu”, “Opposition Platform – Za Zhittya”, “Batkivschyna”) retain their position compared to earlier surveys accompanied with the downfall of the Solidarnist Party and considerable gap remaining between “Opposition Platform – Za Zhittya” and “Opposition Bloc – The Party of Peace and Development”.
The distinct drop of the Solidarnist Party of the former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko (from 13.2% to 8.9%, compared to the previous survey) may have been caused primarily by decision of the well-known Ukrainian musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk to launch his own political project. Experts claim that both parties would be compelled to share the same electoral basis, which would definitely hamper their striving for the forefront of parliamentary life.
Recent surveys by Ukrainian research companies also show that a number of Ukrainian parties (The Radical Part of Oleg Lyashko, “Gromadyanska Pozitsiya”, “Syla I Chest”) stay close to entering the next parliament, and taking into account the error margin of 2.2% their chances of further parliamentary life remain quite realistic.
The augmented quantity of voters who chose to support “another party” even despite all notable political parties were listed in the survey is explained with the fact that high politicization of Ukrainian society and constant discussion of presidential and parliamentary elections made people think of some new alliances and political projects especially those that could be launched by local politicians and local opinion leaders.
The international research center BURI (The Belgium-Ukraine Research Institute) conducted the survey in Ukraine on May 13-17, 2019. Total quantity of respondents equaled 2010 individuals (representative sample). The survey method – combined interviews. Error margin is 2.2%.